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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Luxembourg v Bulgaria: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Stade de Luxembourg

Luxembourg

LLWWL
0–2
FT

Bulgaria

LDLDL
Luxembourg 47%Draw 23%Bulgaria 30% Expected goals 1.25 – 0.92
54%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.85 · bookmaker 2.05 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
2.05Odds

Picks by market

ResultLuxembourg to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.16

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Tuesday 6 October: Luxembourg v Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League, played at Stade de Luxembourg. In the table, Luxembourg are 4th on 3 points after 4 matches; Bulgaria are 3rd with 4. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Luxembourg, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Estonia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Bulgaria, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Iceland, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Luxembourg, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Bulgaria.

Head to head

When they last met (26 Sep 2026) it ended Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Luxembourg 1.3 xG, Bulgaria 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Luxembourg 47%, draw 23%, Bulgaria 30%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.05 – longer than our fair 1.85, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luxembourg 1–1 Bulgaria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Luxembourg47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.10
Bulgaria30%fair 3.35 · @3.50
2.17Expected goals
1.25Luxembourg xG
0.92Bulgaria xG
54%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Luxembourg 1.3 – 0.9 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLuxembourg to win ✗47%2.132.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.852.05 ▲
Draw no betLuxembourg (draw no bet) ✗61%1.64–
Asian handicapBulgaria +1 (Asian handicap) ✓74%1.36–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63%1.59–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83%1.21–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
First team to scoreLuxembourg to score first ✗51%1.95–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Luxembourg / FT Luxembourg ✗25%3.93–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.16–

Recent results

Luxembourg – last 6

LLWWLW
3 Oct@ Estonia0–1L
29 Sepvs Iceland0–3L
26 Sep@ Bulgaria2–1W
6 Jun@ Albania1–0W
3 Junvs Italy0–1L
31 Marvs Malta3–0W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Bulgaria – last 6

LDLDLW
3 Oct@ Iceland0–3L
29 Sepvs Estonia0–0D
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
30 Mar@ Indonesia1–0W
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

26 Sep 2026Bulgaria v Luxembourg1–2
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Kazakhstan2 Faroe Islands2 136%2.30X25%2.80239%3.20 1.1–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.95 ✓
FT Croatia1 Spain2 114%9.50X18%5.80268%1.22 1.6–3.2xG GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.75 ✓
FT England3 Czechia0 173%1.11X15%8.00213%19.00 2.8–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@2.10 ✗
FT Albania2 San Marino1 180%1.03X12%19.0027%51.00 2.9–0.8xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.30 ✗
FT Belarus1 Finland0 119%3.80X25%3.20256%1.91 0.9–1.7xG X2Finland or draw 81%@1.25 ✗
FT Moldova0 Slovakia4 111%7.50X23%4.40266%1.36 0.6–1.8xG 2Slovakia to win 66%@1.36 ✓
FT Estonia0 Iceland0 120%5.00X20%3.75261%1.57 0.5–1.3xG 2Iceland to win 61%@1.57 ✗
FT Switzerland3 FYR Macedonia0 174%1.10X18%9.0028%23.00 2.1–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.

Who will win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

On our numbers Luxembourg have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bulgaria 30%.

How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Our predicted score is Luxembourg 1–1 Bulgaria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.