Estonia 20%Draw 20%Iceland 61%Expected goals 0.53 – 1.30
61%
Betarazi pick
Iceland to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultIceland to win ✗61% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.78
Estonia vs Iceland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Iceland travel to face Estonia on Tuesday 6 October in the UEFA Nations League, with A. Le Coq Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Estonia are 2nd on 6 points after 4 matches; Iceland are 1st with 8. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estonia, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Luxembourg, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Iceland, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Bulgaria, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Sep 2026) it ended Iceland 1–1 Estonia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estonia 0.5 xG, Iceland 1.3 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estonia 20%, draw 20%, Iceland 61%.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Iceland to win (61%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estonia 0–1 Iceland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estonia20%fair 5.07 · @5.00
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.75
Iceland61%fair 1.65 · @1.57
1.83Expected goals
0.53Estonia xG
1.30Iceland xG
45%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–121%
0–016%
0–214%
1–111%
1–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Estonia 0.5 – 1.3 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Iceland to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Estonia vs Iceland?
On our numbers Estonia have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Iceland 61%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Iceland?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Iceland?
Our predicted score is Estonia 0–1 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Iceland?
Estonia vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at A. Le Coq Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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