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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Serbia v Germany: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Rajko Mitić Stadion

Serbia

LLLLL
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Germany

DWLDD
Serbia 15%Draw 21%Germany 64% Expected goals 0.78 – 1.67
64%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.80

6/10Rating
1.80Odds

Picks by market

ResultGermany to win64% · @1.30
Double chanceGermany or draw85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.63

Serbia vs Germany: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:45 WAT, Friday 13 November: Serbia v Germany in the UEFA Nations League, played at Rajko Mitić Stadion. In the table, Serbia are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Germany are 3rd with 5.

Current form

Serbia, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Netherlands, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Germany, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Greece, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Germany, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.0 for Serbia.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Oct 2026) it ended Germany 2–0 Serbia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Serbia 0.8 xG, Germany 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Serbia 15%, draw 21%, Germany 64%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.67.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Serbia 0–1 Germany. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Serbia15%fair 6.48 · @8.00
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @6.00
Germany64%fair 1.57 · @1.30
2.46Expected goals
0.78Serbia xG
1.67Germany xG
55%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%

From our goals model: Serbia 0.8 – 1.7 Germany expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

SerbiaGermany
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-14%-17%
Goals conceded vs average+27%-28%
Our expected goals here0.761.29

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGermany to win64%1.571.30
Double chanceGermany or draw85%1.181.06
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score55%1.821.67
Draw no betGermany (draw no bet)80%1.24–
Asian handicapSerbia +1.5 (Asian handicap)67%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals78%1.281.11
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals56%1.791.40
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals64%1.561.80 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals80%1.251.33 ▲
First team to scoreGermany to score first62%1.61–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Germany / FT Germany36%2.77–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%10.63–

Recent results

Serbia – last 6

LLLLLL
4 Oct@ Netherlands1–2L
1 Oct@ Germany0–2L
27 Sepvs Netherlands1–2L
24 Sepvs Greece1–2L
5 Jun@ Mexico1–5L
31 May@ Cape Verde Islands0–3L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Germany – last 6

DWLDDL
4 Oct@ Greece0–0D
1 Octvs Serbia2–0W
27 Sepvs Greece0–1L
24 Sep@ Netherlands1–1D
29 Junvs Paraguay1–1D
25 Jun@ Ecuador1–2L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Oct 2026Germany v Serbia2–0
Serbia vs Germany head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands4220+28
2Greece4220+28
3Germany4121+15
4Serbia4004-50

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Moldova Kazakhstan 134%2.60X27%3.00239%2.88 1.2–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.44
Netherlands Greece 154%1.50X23%4.50224%6.00 1.5–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 66%@1.53
Slovakia Faroe Islands 162%1.36X22%4.50216%8.50 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25
Bulgaria Iceland 117%4.33X25%3.60258%1.80 0.7–1.6xG X2Iceland or draw 83%@1.20
Liechtenstein Azerbaijan 112%14.00X24%5.15265%1.28 0.5–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22
Luxembourg Estonia 133%2.15X29%3.10237%3.50 0.8–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.50
Andorra Gibraltar 143%1.90X29%3.08228%5.20 0.8–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 73%@1.32
Slovenia Switzerland 118%6.00X25%3.60257%1.60 0.8–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Serbia vs Germany?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Serbia vs Germany?

On our numbers Serbia have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Germany 64%.

How many goals will there be in Serbia vs Germany?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Serbia vs Germany?

Our predicted score is Serbia 0–1 Germany, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Serbia vs Germany?

Serbia vs Germany (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Rajko Mitić Stadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.