Value bet: Estonia to win @ 3.50 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultEstonia to win37% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–27% · fair 14.88
Luxembourg vs Estonia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Luxembourg welcome Estonia to Stade de Luxembourg for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Friday 13 November (20:45 WAT). In the table, Luxembourg are 4th on 3 points after 4 matches; Estonia are 2nd with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Luxembourg, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Bulgaria, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Estonia, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Iceland, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Estonia, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Luxembourg.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Oct 2026) it ended Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Luxembourg 0.8 xG, Estonia 1.0 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Luxembourg 33%, draw 29%, Estonia 37%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Estonia to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 37%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luxembourg 0–1 Estonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Luxembourg33%fair 2.99 · @2.15
Draw29%fair 3.43 · @3.10
Estonia37%fair 2.68 · @3.50
1.81Expected goals
0.79Luxembourg xG
1.02Estonia xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
0–016%
1–113%
1–013%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Luxembourg 0.8 – 1.0 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Luxembourg
Estonia
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-14%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+17%
-39%
Our expected goals here
0.65
1.10
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Estonia 37%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Our predicted score is Luxembourg 0–1 Estonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Luxembourg vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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