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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bulgaria v Iceland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Hristo Botev Stadium

Bulgaria

WLDLD
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Iceland

DWWDL
Bulgaria 17%Draw 25%Iceland 58% Expected goals 0.71 – 1.59
83%
Betarazi pick

Iceland or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20

10/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win58% · @1.80
Double chanceIceland or draw83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.11

Bulgaria vs Iceland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Iceland travel to face Bulgaria on Friday 13 November in the UEFA Nations League, with Hristo Botev Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points after 4 matches; Iceland are 1st with 8.

Current form

Bulgaria, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Luxembourg, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Iceland, last 5: DWWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estonia, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (3 Oct 2026) it ended Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bulgaria 0.7 xG, Iceland 1.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bulgaria 17%, draw 25%, Iceland 58%.
  • Lower-risk option: Iceland or draw (83%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.00.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Iceland or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bulgaria17%fair 5.93 · @4.33
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.60
Iceland58%fair 1.72 · @1.80
2.30Expected goals
0.71Bulgaria xG
1.59Iceland xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 0.7 – 1.6 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

BulgariaIceland
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-13%+29%
Goals conceded vs average+4%-31%
Our expected goals here0.741.66

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIceland to win58%1.721.80
Double chanceIceland or draw83%1.201.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score50%1.992.00
Draw no betIceland (draw no bet)77%1.29–
Asian handicapBulgaria +1.5 (Asian handicap)69%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.451.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals57%1.741.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals77%1.291.25
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals89%1.121.08
First team to scoreIceland to score first62%1.61–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iceland / FT Iceland36%2.81–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%11.11–

Recent results

Bulgaria – last 6

WLDLDL
6 Oct@ Luxembourg2–0W
3 Oct@ Iceland0–3L
29 Sepvs Estonia0–0D
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Iceland – last 6

DWWDLL
6 Oct@ Estonia0–0D
3 Octvs Bulgaria3–0W
29 Sep@ Luxembourg3–0W
26 Sepvs Estonia1–1D
10 Jun@ Argentina0–3L
31 May@ Japan0–1L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Iceland v Bulgaria3–0
Bulgaria vs Iceland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Moldova Kazakhstan 134%2.60X27%3.00239%2.88 1.2–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.44
Serbia Germany 115%8.00X21%6.00264%1.30 0.8–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.80
Netherlands Greece 154%1.50X23%4.50224%6.00 1.5–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 66%@1.53
Slovakia Faroe Islands 162%1.36X22%4.50216%8.50 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25
Liechtenstein Azerbaijan 112%14.00X24%5.15265%1.28 0.5–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22
Luxembourg Estonia 133%2.15X29%3.10237%3.50 0.8–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.50
Andorra Gibraltar 143%1.90X29%3.08228%5.20 0.8–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 73%@1.32
Slovenia Switzerland 118%6.00X25%3.60257%1.60 0.8–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our pick is Iceland or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?

On our numbers Bulgaria have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Iceland 58%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Iceland?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our predicted score is Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Bulgaria vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.