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Netherlands v Greece: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Johan Cruijff Arena

Netherlands

WDWDD
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Greece

DDWWL
Netherlands 54%Draw 23%Greece 24% Expected goals 1.54 – 1.19
66%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.53

6/10Rating
1.53Odds

Picks by market

ResultNetherlands to win54% · @1.50
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.86

Netherlands vs Greece: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Friday 13 November the UEFA Nations League brings Netherlands against Greece at Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Netherlands are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Greece are 2nd with 8. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Netherlands, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Serbia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Greece, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Germany, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Netherlands, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Greece.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Oct 2026) it ended Greece 2–2 Netherlands.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Netherlands 1.5 xG, Greece 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Netherlands 54%, draw 23%, Greece 24%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.

Betarazi verdict

The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (66%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Netherlands 1–1 Greece. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Netherlands54%fair 1.86 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @4.50
Greece24%fair 4.25 · @6.00
2.74Expected goals
1.54Netherlands xG
1.19Greece xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%

From our goals model: Netherlands 1.5 – 1.2 Greece expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

NetherlandsGreece
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+20%+4%
Goals conceded vs average+7%-14%
Our expected goals here1.261.38

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNetherlands to win54%1.861.50
Double chanceEither team to win77%1.301.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score57%1.741.67
Draw no betNetherlands (draw no bet)69%1.44–
Asian handicapGreece +1 (Asian handicap)70%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals78%1.281.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals56%1.791.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals66%1.521.53
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals82%1.221.20
First team to scoreNetherlands to score first53%1.90–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time42%2.40–
Half-time / full-timeHT Netherlands / FT Netherlands27%3.69–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%10.86–

Recent results

Netherlands – last 6

WDWDDW
4 Octvs Serbia2–1W
1 Oct@ Greece2–2D
27 Sep@ Serbia2–1W
24 Sepvs Germany1–1D
30 Junvs Morocco1–1D
26 Jun@ Tunisia3–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Greece – last 6

DDWWLD
4 Octvs Germany0–0D
1 Octvs Netherlands2–2D
27 Sep@ Germany1–0W
24 Sep@ Serbia2–1W
7 Junvs Italy0–1L
4 Jun@ Sweden2–2D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Oct 2026Greece v Netherlands2–2
Netherlands vs Greece head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands4220+28
2Greece4220+28
3Germany4121+15
4Serbia4004-50

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Moldova Kazakhstan 134%2.60X27%3.00239%2.88 1.2–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.44
Serbia Germany 115%8.00X21%6.00264%1.30 0.8–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.80
Slovakia Faroe Islands 162%1.36X22%4.50216%8.50 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25
Bulgaria Iceland 117%4.33X25%3.60258%1.80 0.7–1.6xG X2Iceland or draw 83%@1.20
Liechtenstein Azerbaijan 112%14.00X24%5.15265%1.28 0.5–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22
Luxembourg Estonia 133%2.15X29%3.10237%3.50 0.8–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.50
Andorra Gibraltar 143%1.90X29%3.08228%5.20 0.8–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 73%@1.32
Slovenia Switzerland 118%6.00X25%3.60257%1.60 0.8–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Greece?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Netherlands vs Greece?

On our numbers Netherlands have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Greece 24%.

How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Greece?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Greece?

Our predicted score is Netherlands 1–1 Greece, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Netherlands vs Greece?

Netherlands vs Greece (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.