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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Maranhão v Ceara: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil

Maranhão

WLLLD
1–3
FT

Ceara

LWWWD
Maranhão 21%Draw 26%Ceara 54% Expected goals 1.15 – 1.52
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 57% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCeara to win ✓54% · @1.40
Double chanceCeara or draw ✓79% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.89

Maranhão vs Ceara: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Maranhão welcome Ceara for a Copa Do Nordeste fixture on Thursday 30 April (01:30 WAT).

Current form

Maranhão, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Volta Redonda, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Ceara, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico-MG, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Ceara, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Maranhão.

Head to head

When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended Maranhão 0–1 Ceara.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Maranhão 1.2 xG, Ceara 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Maranhão 21%, draw 26%, Ceara 54%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.15.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Maranhão 1–1 Ceara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Maranhão21%fair 4.82 · @8.00
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.90
Ceara54%fair 1.87 · @1.40
2.67Expected goals
1.15Maranhão xG
1.52Ceara xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%

From our goals model: Maranhão 1.2 – 1.5 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCeara to win ✓54%1.871.40
Double chanceCeara or draw ✓79%1.261.02
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓57%1.772.15 ▲
Draw no betCeara (draw no bet) ✓72%1.39–
Asian handicapMaranhão +1 (Asian handicap) ✗70%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.371.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.951.77
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗72%1.381.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓87%1.15–
First team to scoreCeara to score first ✓53%1.89–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.37–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ceara / FT Ceara ✓27%3.69–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.89–

Recent results

Maranhão – last 6

WLLLDL
25 Aprvs Volta Redonda2–1W
19 Apr@ Amazonas0–2L
16 Apr@ Sport Recife0–5L
12 Apr@ Barra0–3L
8 Apr@ Imperatriz1–1D
25 Mar@ America-RN0–2L
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Ceara – last 6

LWWWDD
23 Apr@ Atletico-MG1–2L
15 Aprvs Jacuipense4–1W
12 Aprvs Nautico Recife1–0W
9 Aprvs Fortaleza EC2–0W
2 Apr@ Ponte Preta1–1D
25 Marvs ABC1–1D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

12 Mar 2026Maranhão v Ceara0–1
Maranhão vs Ceara head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Nordeste predictions

FT Retrô2 America-RN1 135%2.55X26%3.10238%2.55 1.1–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.42 ✓
FT Piauí1 AO Itabaiana1 140%2.70X28%3.00232%2.50 1.3–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.42 ✓
FT Juazeirense1 ASA1 130%2.45X28%2.88242%2.90 1.0–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%@1.55 ✓
FT Jacuipense0 Imperatriz1 148%1.95X28%3.10224%3.75 1.3–1.0xG 1XJacuipense or draw 76%@1.20 ✗
FT Fortaleza EC2 Sport Recife0 148%1.95X27%3.10224%3.70 1.5–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT CRB3 Sousa0 153%1.95X26%3.10221%3.75 1.7–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓
FT Confiança2 Vitoria2 131%3.25X29%2.88241%2.25 1.2–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.45 ✓
FT Botafogo PB1 Fluminense PI1 165%1.25X24%4.60212%11.00 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Maranhão vs Ceara?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Maranhão vs Ceara?

On our numbers Maranhão have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ceara 54%.

How many goals will there be in Maranhão vs Ceara?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Maranhão vs Ceara?

Our predicted score is Maranhão 1–1 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Maranhão vs Ceara?

Maranhão vs Ceara (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.