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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Fortaleza EC v Sport Recife: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil

Fortaleza EC

WWDLD
2–0
FT

Sport Recife

WWWWD
Fortaleza EC 48%Draw 27%Sport Recife 24% Expected goals 1.45 – 1.01
77%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultFortaleza EC to win ✓48% · @1.95
Double chanceFortaleza EC or draw ✓76% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02

Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Fortaleza EC welcome Sport Recife for a Copa Do Nordeste fixture on Thursday 30 April (01:30 WAT).

Current form

Fortaleza EC, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over CRB, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Sport Recife, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Novorizontino, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Sport Recife, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.8 for Fortaleza EC.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Fortaleza EC 1.5 xG, Sport Recife 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Fortaleza EC 48%, draw 27%, Sport Recife 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Fortaleza EC or draw (76%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fortaleza EC 1–1 Sport Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Fortaleza EC48%fair 2.06 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @3.10
Sport Recife24%fair 4.14 · @3.70
2.46Expected goals
1.45Fortaleza EC xG
1.01Sport Recife xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–19%
0–09%

From our goals model: Fortaleza EC 1.5 – 1.0 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFortaleza EC to win ✓48%2.061.95
Double chanceFortaleza EC or draw ✓76%1.321.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.771.91 ▲
Draw no betFortaleza EC (draw no bet) ✓67%1.50–
Asian handicapSport Recife +1 (Asian handicap) ✗69%1.44–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓68%1.461.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.771.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.311.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.12–
First team to scoreFortaleza EC to score first ✓54%1.86–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Fortaleza EC / FT Fortaleza EC ✗28%3.58–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.02–

Recent results

Fortaleza EC – last 6

WWDLDW
23 Aprvs CRB2–1W
20 Aprvs Criciuma3–2W
16 Apr@ America-RN1–1D
9 Apr@ Ceara0–2L
31 Marvs Cuiaba0–0D
28 Marvs Imperatriz2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Sport Recife – last 6

WWWWDW
26 Aprvs Novorizontino1–0W
16 Aprvs Maranhão5–0W
9 Aprvs Retrô3–0W
5 Apr@ Londrina2–1W
1 Aprvs Vila Nova1–1D
29 Mar@ ABC1–0W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife.

Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Nordeste predictions

FT Retrô2 America-RN1 135%2.55X26%3.10238%2.55 1.1–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.42 ✓
FT Piauí1 AO Itabaiana1 140%2.70X28%3.00232%2.50 1.3–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.42 ✓
FT Maranhão1 Ceara3 121%8.00X26%3.90254%1.40 1.2–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Juazeirense1 ASA1 130%2.45X28%2.88242%2.90 1.0–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%@1.55 ✓
FT Jacuipense0 Imperatriz1 148%1.95X28%3.10224%3.75 1.3–1.0xG 1XJacuipense or draw 76%@1.20 ✗
FT CRB3 Sousa0 153%1.95X26%3.10221%3.75 1.7–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓
FT Confiança2 Vitoria2 131%3.25X29%2.88241%2.25 1.2–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.45 ✓
FT Botafogo PB1 Fluminense PI1 165%1.25X24%4.60212%11.00 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?

On our numbers Fortaleza EC have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sport Recife 24%.

How many goals will there be in Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?

Our predicted score is Fortaleza EC 1–1 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?

Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.