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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Joinville v Guarany de Bagé: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil · Arena Joinville

Joinville

LLLWL
2–0
FT

Guarany de Bagé

LLLLL
Joinville 63%Draw 24%Guarany de Bagé 13% Expected goals 1.74 – 0.71
63%
Betarazi pick

Joinville to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 51% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultJoinville to win ✓63% · @1.44
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓87% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.79

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Joinville welcome Guarany de Bagé to Arena Joinville for a Serie D fixture on Saturday 30 May (20:00 WAT).

Current form

Joinville, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to São Bernardo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Guarany de Bagé, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Cascavel, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Momentum favours Joinville, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Guarany de Bagé.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Joinville 1.7 xG, Guarany de Bagé 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Joinville 63%, draw 24%, Guarany de Bagé 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.50.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Joinville to win (63%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Joinville 1–0 Guarany de Bagé. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Joinville63%fair 1.59 · @1.44
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.25
Guarany de Bagé13%fair 7.78 · @8.00
2.45Expected goals
1.74Joinville xG
0.71Guarany de Bagé xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%

From our goals model: Joinville 1.7 – 0.7 Guarany de Bagé expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultJoinville to win ✓63%1.591.44
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓87%1.151.07
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.972.50 ▲
Draw no betJoinville (draw no bet) ✓83%1.20–
Asian handicapJoinville -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.43–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.79–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.30–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scoreJoinville to score first ✓65%1.54–
Half-time resultJoinville ahead at half-time ✗43%2.31–
Half-time / full-timeHT Joinville / FT Joinville ✗39%2.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.79–

Recent results

Joinville – last 6

LLLWLW
10 Marvs São Bernardo0–1L
7 Mar@ Marcílio Dias0–2L
28 Febvs Figueirense0–3L
24 Febvs CSA1–0W
19 Feb@ Carlos Renaux1–2L
14 Febvs Carlos Renaux3–0W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Guarany de Bagé – last 6

LLLLLW
24 Mayvs Cascavel0–4L
21 Mayvs Bagé0–1L
13 May@ Brasil DE Pelotas0–2L
5 Apr@ Cianorte1–3L
11 Mar@ Ponte Preta0–1L
26 Feb@ Caxias1–0W
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Guarany de Bagé.

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Água Santa4 Madureira1 153%1.62X27%3.10220%5.50 1.5–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.20 ✓
FT Aparecidense1 Primavera MG1 151%1.85X27%3.00222%3.80 1.6–1.0xG 1XAparecidense or draw 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Parnahyba2 156%1.67X24%3.10220%4.80 1.7–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.20 ✓
FT ABECAT Ouvidorense2 Ipatinga1 143%2.90X27%2.60230%2.45 1.5–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.10 ✓
FT Porto BA1 Tombense3 126%3.70X25%3.10248%1.91 1.1–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✗
FT Pouso Alegre1 Portuguesa2 114%4.60X25%2.90261%1.75 0.5–1.5xG 2Portuguesa to win 61%@1.75 ✓
FT Vitória ES1 Real Noroeste1 163%1.50X25%3.50213%6.00 1.5–0.5xG 1Vitória ES to win 63%@1.50 ✗
FT ASA0 CSE0 168%1.30X19%4.00212%11.00 2.0–0.7xG 1ASA to win 68%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Our pick is Joinville to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

On our numbers Joinville have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guarany de Bagé 13%.

How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Our predicted score is Joinville 1–0 Guarany de Bagé, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé?

Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.