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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Porto BA v Tombense: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Porto BA

LLLWD
1–3
FT

Tombense

LDLDW
Porto BA 26%Draw 25%Tombense 48% Expected goals 1.12 – 1.50
76%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultTombense to win ✓48% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.91

Porto BA vs Tombense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Tombense travel to face Porto BA on Saturday 30 May in the Serie D – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Porto BA, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Democrata GV, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Tombense, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Juventude, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Porto BA 1.1 xG, Tombense 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Porto BA 26%, draw 25%, Tombense 48%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Porto BA 1–1 Tombense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Porto BA26%fair 3.80 · @3.70
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Tombense48%fair 2.07 · @1.91
2.62Expected goals
1.12Porto BA xG
1.50Tombense xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

From our goals model: Porto BA 1.1 – 1.5 Tombense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultTombense to win ✓48%2.071.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.862.10 ▲
Draw no betTombense (draw no bet) ✓65%1.54–
Asian handicapPorto BA +1 (Asian handicap) ✗70%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.451.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.801.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.321.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.141.06
First team to scoreTombense to score first53%1.89–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.34–
Half-time / full-timeHT Tombense / FT Tombense ✗27%3.67–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.91–

Recent results

Porto BA – last 5

LLLWD
26 May@ Democrata GV1–3L
4 Mar@ CRB0–6L
22 Febvs Juazeirense1–3L
18 Febvs Serra Branca2–1W
15 Feb@ Atlético Alagoinhas0–0D
0.8Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5

Tombense – last 6

LDLDWL
7 May@ Juventude1–2L
30 Aprvs São Bernardo2–2D
16 Apr@ Volta Redonda2–3L
9 Aprvs America Mineiro3–3D
26 Marvs Avai3–2W
12 Mar@ Confiança0–2L
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Porto BA and Tombense.

Porto BA vs Tombense head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Água Santa4 Madureira1 153%1.62X27%3.10220%5.50 1.5–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.20 ✓
FT Aparecidense1 Primavera MG1 151%1.85X27%3.00222%3.80 1.6–1.0xG 1XAparecidense or draw 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Parnahyba2 156%1.67X24%3.10220%4.80 1.7–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.20 ✓
FT Joinville2 Guarany de Bagé0 163%1.44X24%3.25213%8.00 1.7–0.7xG 1Joinville to win 63%@1.44 ✓
FT ABECAT Ouvidorense2 Ipatinga1 143%2.90X27%2.60230%2.45 1.5–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.10 ✓
FT Pouso Alegre1 Portuguesa2 114%4.60X25%2.90261%1.75 0.5–1.5xG 2Portuguesa to win 61%@1.75 ✓
FT Vitória ES1 Real Noroeste1 163%1.50X25%3.50213%6.00 1.5–0.5xG 1Vitória ES to win 63%@1.50 ✗
FT ASA0 CSE0 168%1.30X19%4.00212%11.00 2.0–0.7xG 1ASA to win 68%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Porto BA vs Tombense?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Porto BA vs Tombense?

On our numbers Porto BA have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tombense 48%.

How many goals will there be in Porto BA vs Tombense?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Porto BA vs Tombense?

Our predicted score is Porto BA 1–1 Tombense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Porto BA vs Tombense?

Porto BA vs Tombense (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.