Arsenal Tula 27%Draw 24%Rodina Moskva 49%Expected goals 1.10 – 1.67
71%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.36
7/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.94 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRodina Moskva to win49% · @2.07
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.94
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.41
Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 16 May the First League brings Arsenal Tula against Rodina Moskva at Stadion Arsenal. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.
Current form
Arsenal Tula, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Enisey, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Chelyabinsk, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Rodina Moskva, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Arsenal Tula.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal Tula 1.1 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal Tula 27%, draw 24%, Rodina Moskva 49%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.94.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.94 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal Tula 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arsenal Tula27%fair 3.77 · @3.40
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.32
Rodina Moskva49%fair 2.02 · @2.07
2.77Expected goals
1.10Arsenal Tula xG
1.67Rodina Moskva xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.1 – 1.7 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arsenal Tula
Rodina Moskva
Attack vs First League average
-6%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+37%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.28
2.05
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodina Moskva to win
49%
2.02
2.07
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.94 ▲
Draw no bet
Rodina Moskva (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Arsenal Tula +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.89
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.14
1.01
First team to score
Rodina Moskva to score first
56%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodina Moskva / FT Rodina Moskva
31%
3.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Arsenal Tula – last 6
LDDLWW
11 May
@ Enisey
0–1
L
4 May
vs Rotor Volgograd
2–2
D
22 Apr
vs Chelyabinsk
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Fakel
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
WLWWWW
8 May
vs Chelyabinsk
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Fakel
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal Tula and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rodina Moskva 49%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chernomorets1
FK Sokol Saratov0
Chayka0
Fakel0