Value bet: Ural to win @ 3.36 – our chance 41% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultUral to win41% · @3.36
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.03
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.30
Chernomorets vs Ural: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chernomorets welcome Ural to Centralnyy for a First League fixture on Saturday 16 May (11:00 WAT).
Current form
Chernomorets, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Chayka, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Ural, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over KAMAZ, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Ural, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Chernomorets.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chernomorets 1.0 xG, Ural 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chernomorets 31%, draw 28%, Ural 41%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.03.
Price worth noting: Ural to win @3.36 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chernomorets 1–1 Ural. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chernomorets31%fair 3.18 · @2.29
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @2.90
Ural41%fair 2.44 · @3.36
2.39Expected goals
1.00Chernomorets xG
1.39Ural xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
1–09%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Chernomorets 1.0 – 1.4 Ural expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chernomorets
Ural
Attack vs First League average
-5%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-37%
Our expected goals here
0.89
1.59
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ural to win
41%
2.44
3.36 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
2.03 ▲
Draw no bet
Ural (draw no bet)
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Chernomorets +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.68
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.01
First team to score
Ural to score first
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ural / FT Ural
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.30
–
Recent results
Chernomorets – last 6
WLDLWL
8 May
@ Chayka
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
0–4
L
3 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Rotor Volgograd
1–4
L
7 Mar
vs Ska-khabarovsk
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Torpedo Moskva
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ural – last 6
WLWWWD
11 May
vs KAMAZ
2–0
W
4 May
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
18 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–0
W
12 Apr
vs FC UFA
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chernomorets and Ural.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Chernomorets vs Ural?
On our numbers Chernomorets have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Ural 41%.
How many goals will there be in Chernomorets vs Ural?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chernomorets vs Ural?
Our predicted score is Chernomorets 1–1 Ural, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Chernomorets vs Ural?
Chernomorets vs Ural (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Centralnyy.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rodina Moskva2
FK Sokol Saratov0
Chayka0
Fakel0