Volga Ulyanovsk 25%Draw 26%Fakel 50%Expected goals 1.02 – 1.27
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.37
6/10Rating
1.37Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.08 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultFakel to win50% · @1.72
Double chanceFakel or draw75% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.08
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 11.99
Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Saturday 16 May: Volga Ulyanovsk v Fakel in the First League, played at Trud Stadium.
Current form
Volga Ulyanovsk, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FK Sokol Saratov, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Fakel, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Ska-khabarovsk, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Volga Ulyanovsk 1.0 xG, Fakel 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Volga Ulyanovsk 25%, draw 26%, Fakel 50%.
Lower-risk option: Fakel or draw (75%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.08.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.37). Most likely score in line with that pick: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–1 Fakel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Volga Ulyanovsk25%fair 4.08 · @4.80
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.45
Fakel50%fair 2.00 · @1.72
2.29Expected goals
1.02Volga Ulyanovsk xG
1.27Fakel xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Volga Ulyanovsk 1.0 – 1.3 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Volga Ulyanovsk
Fakel
Attack vs First League average
-10%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
-6%
Our expected goals here
1.25
1.10
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win
50%
2.00
1.72
Double chance
Fakel or draw
75%
1.33
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.86
2.08 ▲
Draw no bet
Fakel (draw no bet)
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Volga Ulyanovsk +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.37
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.69
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.02
First team to score
Fakel to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
11.99
–
Recent results
Volga Ulyanovsk – last 6
LWLDWD
3 May
vs FK Sokol Saratov
0–1
L
22 Apr
vs Chayka
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Ska-khabarovsk
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Spartak Kostroma
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Chelyabinsk
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 6
DDDLWW
8 May
vs Ska-khabarovsk
0–0
D
27 Apr
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–2
D
22 Apr
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs Rodina Moskva
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Volga Ulyanovsk and Fakel.
What is the prediction for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel?
On our numbers Volga Ulyanovsk have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fakel 50%.
How many goals will there be in Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Volga Ulyanovsk 1–1 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel?
Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Trud Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rodina Moskva2
Chernomorets1
FK Sokol Saratov0
Chayka0