Value bet: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @ 3.08 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultChelyabinsk to win37% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.93
Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Saturday 16 May: Chelyabinsk v Shinnik Yaroslavl in the First League, played at Central Stadium. In the table, Chelyabinsk are 11th, lower half, on 21 points after 17 matches; Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th (upper half) with 26.
Current form
Chelyabinsk, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rodina Moskva, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Shinnik Yaroslavl, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Torpedo Moskva, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Shinnik Yaroslavl, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Chelyabinsk.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chelyabinsk 1.2 xG, Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chelyabinsk 37%, draw 28%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 35%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @3.08 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chelyabinsk 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chelyabinsk37%fair 2.69 · @2.34
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @3.05
Shinnik Yaroslavl35%fair 2.84 · @3.08
2.33Expected goals
1.17Chelyabinsk xG
1.16Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Chelyabinsk 1.2 – 1.2 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chelyabinsk
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Attack vs First League average
+2%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.22
1.26
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelyabinsk to win
37%
2.69
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.85
Draw no bet
Chelyabinsk (draw no bet)
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Shinnik Yaroslavl +0.5 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.03
First team to score
Chelyabinsk to score first
45%
2.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelyabinsk / FT Chelyabinsk
21%
4.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.93
–
Recent results
Chelyabinsk – last 6
LWLDLD
8 May
@ Rodina Moskva
0–2
L
2 May
vs FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Ural
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Enisey
0–3
L
3 Apr
vs Chernomorets
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
DWDWDD
11 May
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
4 May
@ Ural
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Fakel
2–2
D
12 Apr
@ Volga Ulyanovsk
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Spartak Kostroma
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Enisey
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelyabinsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
What is the prediction for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Chelyabinsk have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 35%.
How many goals will there be in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our predicted score is Chelyabinsk 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Rodina Moskva2
Chernomorets1
FK Sokol Saratov0
Chayka0
Fakel0