Ethiopia v Senegal Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSenegal to win ✓67% · @1.36

Double chanceSenegal or draw ✓89% · @1.07

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.67

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓25% · fair 4.05

Ethiopia vs Senegal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ethiopia welcome Senegal to Bahir Dar Stadium for a Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification fixture on Tuesday 29 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Ethiopia are 4th on 4 points after 6 matches; Senegal are 1st with 16. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Ethiopia, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sudan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Senegal, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mozambique, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Ethiopia, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Senegal.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ethiopia 0.3 xG, Senegal 1.4 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Ethiopia 11%, draw 22%, Senegal 67%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Senegal to win (67%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ethiopia 0–1 Senegal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ethiopia11%fair 9.46 · @8.00

Draw22%fair 4.50 · @4.00

Senegal67%fair 1.49 · @1.36

1.75Expected goals

0.33Ethiopia xG

1.42Senegal xG

46%Both score

26%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–125%

0–218%

0–017%

0–38%

1–18%

1–26%

From our goals model: Ethiopia 0.3 – 1.4 Senegal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Senegal to win ✓	67%	1.49	1.36
Double chance	Senegal or draw ✓	89%	1.12	1.07
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	54%	1.84	1.67
Draw no bet	Senegal (draw no bet) ✓	86%	1.16	–
Asian handicap	Senegal -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	52%	1.92	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	74%	1.34	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	97%	1.03	–
First team to score	Senegal to score first ✓	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	51%	1.98	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Senegal / FT Senegal ✓	39%	2.54	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✓	25%	4.05	–

Ethiopia – last 5

LDWWW

25 Sep	@ Sudan	0–1	L
9 Jun	vs Malawi	1–1	D
6 Jun	vs Malawi	1–0	W
31 Mar	vs Sao Tome and Principe	1–0	W
27 Mar	@ Sao Tome and Principe	3–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.4Conceded / game

20%Both scored

20%Over 2.5

Senegal – last 6

DDWLLD

25 Sep	@ Mozambique	1–1	D
1 Jul	@ Belgium	2–2	D
26 Jun	vs Iraq	5–0	W
23 Jun	@ Norway	2–3	L
16 Jun	@ France	1–3	L
10 Jun	@ Saudi Arabia	0–0	D

1.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	6	4	0	2	+4	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	+1	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	+4	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Team

Pts

-9

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Senegal?

Our pick is Senegal to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Ethiopia vs Senegal?

On our numbers Ethiopia have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Senegal 67%.

How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Senegal?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Senegal?

Our predicted score is Ethiopia 0–1 Senegal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.

When is Ethiopia vs Senegal?

Ethiopia vs Senegal (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Bahir Dar Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Ethiopia v Senegal: numbers & prediction