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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ghana v Gambia: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Accra Sports Stadium

Ghana

LLLDW
2–4
FT

Gambia

WLL
Ghana 62%Draw 19%Gambia 19% Expected goals 1.72 – 0.78
62%
Betarazi pick

Ghana to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultGhana to win ✗62% · @1.44
Double chanceGhana or draw ✗81% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.57

Ghana vs Gambia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 29 September the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Ghana against Gambia at Accra Sports Stadium. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Ghana are 4th on 3 points after 6 matches; Gambia are 3rd with 8.

Current form

Ghana, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ivory Coast, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Gambia, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Somalia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ghana 1.7 xG, Gambia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ghana 62%, draw 19%, Gambia 19%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ghana to win (62%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ghana 1–0 Gambia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ghana62%fair 1.61 · @1.44
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.70
Gambia19%fair 5.34 · @6.00
2.50Expected goals
1.72Ghana xG
0.78Gambia xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Ghana 1.7 – 0.8 Gambia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGhana to win ✗62%1.611.44
Double chanceGhana or draw ✗81%1.231.10
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.942.10 ▲
Draw no betGhana (draw no bet) ✗77%1.30–
Asian handicapGhana -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗60%1.67–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗89%1.12–
First team to scoreGhana to score first63%1.58–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓42%2.35–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ghana / FT Ghana ✗37%2.68–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.57–

Recent results

Ghana – last 6

LLLDWD
24 Sep@ Ivory Coast0–2L
4 Jul@ Colombia0–1L
27 Jun@ Croatia1–2L
23 Jun@ England0–0D
18 Junvs Panama1–0W
2 Jun@ Wales1–1D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gambia – last 3

WLL
25 Sepvs Somalia2–1W
29 May@ Iran1–3L
31 Mar@ Senegal1–3L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Ghana and Gambia.

Ghana vs Gambia head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Comoros6330+312
2Tunisia6312+110
3Gambia622208
4Madagascar6024-42

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
FT Burundi2 Algeria2 112%10.00X21%4.60267%1.29 0.9–2.3xG 2Algeria to win 67%@1.29 ✗
FT Comoros1 Namibia0 162%1.91X23%2.80215%4.00 1.8–0.7xG 1XComoros or draw 85%@1.20 ✓
FT Ethiopia0 Senegal1 111%8.00X22%4.00267%1.36 0.3–1.4xG 2Senegal to win 67%@1.36 ✓
FT Lesotho0 Morocco2 112%51.00X12%15.00275%1.03 0.3–1.7xG NGNot both teams to score 61%@1.29 ✓
FT Mozambique4 Sudan1 160%1.91X25%2.80215%4.40 1.1–0.4xG 1Mozambique to win 60%@1.91 ✓
FT South Sudan0 Egypt5 18%13.00X18%5.00274%1.20 0.3–1.7xG 2Egypt to win 74%@1.20 ✓
FT Madagascar1 Tanzania1 138%2.38X25%2.80237%3.00 1.3–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@2.05 ✓
FT Cape Verde Islands1 Rwanda2 163%1.44X20%3.60217%7.50 2.6–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@2.38 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ghana vs Gambia?

Our pick is Ghana to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Ghana vs Gambia?

On our numbers Ghana have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gambia 19%.

How many goals will there be in Ghana vs Gambia?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ghana vs Gambia?

Our predicted score is Ghana 1–0 Gambia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Ghana vs Gambia?

Ghana vs Gambia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Accra Sports Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.