Lesotho v Morocco Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMorocco to win ✓75% · @1.03

Double chanceEither team to win ✓88% · fair 1.14

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · @1.29

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗22% · fair 4.47

Lesotho vs Morocco: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Tuesday 29 September: Lesotho v Morocco in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification. In the table, Lesotho are 3rd on 4 points after 6 matches; Morocco are 1st with 18. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Lesotho, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Niger, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Morocco, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gabon, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Morocco, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Lesotho.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lesotho 0.3 xG, Morocco 1.7 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Lesotho 12%, draw 12%, Morocco 75%.
GG/NG: NG (61%) at 1.29.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (61%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lesotho 0–1 Morocco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lesotho12%fair 8.07 · @51.00

Draw12%fair 8.20 · @15.00

Morocco75%fair 1.33 · @1.03

2.00Expected goals

0.35Lesotho xG

1.65Morocco xG

39%Both score

32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–122%

0–219%

0–014%

0–310%

1–18%

1–26%

From our goals model: Lesotho 0.3 – 1.7 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Morocco to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.03
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	88%	1.14	–
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	61%	1.64	1.29
Draw no bet	Morocco (draw no bet) ✓	86%	1.16	–
Asian handicap	Morocco -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	70%	1.42	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	59%	1.68	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	95%	1.06	–
First team to score	Morocco to score first ✓	72%	1.40	–
Half-time result	Morocco ahead at half-time ✓	47%	2.15	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Morocco / FT Morocco ✓	44%	2.27	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	22%	4.47	–

Lesotho – last 5

LLDWD

25 Sep	@ Niger	1–2	L
7 Jun	@ Kenya	0–4	L
4 Jun	vs Kenya	1–1	D
29 Mar	vs Seychelles	2–1	W
26 Mar	@ Seychelles	0–0	D

0.8Scored / game

1.6Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

Morocco – last 6

WLWDWW

25 Sep	vs Gabon	2–0	W
9 Jul	@ France	0–2	L
4 Jul	@ Canada	3–0	W
30 Jun	@ Netherlands	1–1	D
24 Jun	vs Haiti	4–2	W
19 Jun	@ Scotland	1–0	W

1.8Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	+24	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	-2	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	-11	4
4	Central African Republic	6	1	0	5	-11	3

Team

Pts

Morocco

+24

Gabon

-2

Lesotho

-11

Central African Republic

-11

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lesotho vs Morocco?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.

Who will win Lesotho vs Morocco?

On our numbers Lesotho have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Morocco 75%.

How many goals will there be in Lesotho vs Morocco?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lesotho vs Morocco?

Our predicted score is Lesotho 0–1 Morocco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Lesotho vs Morocco?

Lesotho vs Morocco (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Lesotho v Morocco: numbers & prediction