Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 60% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMali to win ✓68% · @1.44
Double chanceMali or draw ✓88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Liberia vs Mali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mali travel to face Liberia on Tuesday 29 September in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification, with Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Liberia are 4th on 4 points after 6 matches; Mali are 1st with 14.
Current form
Liberia, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Rwanda, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liberia 1.2 xG, Mali 2.8 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liberia 12%, draw 20%, Mali 68%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mali to win (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liberia 1–2 Mali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liberia12%fair 8.59 · @6.50
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.60
Mali68%fair 1.47 · @1.44
4.00Expected goals
1.21Liberia xG
2.79Mali xG
60%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
0–37%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Liberia 1.2 – 2.8 Mali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mali to win✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Double chance
Mali or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Mali (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Mali -1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Mali to score first✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Mali ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mali / FT Mali✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Recent results
Liberia – last 5
LWLDL
25 Sep
@ Rwanda
1–3
L
9 Jun
vs Sierra Leone
3–1
W
6 Jun
@ Sierra Leone
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Libya
2–2
D
27 Mar
@ Benin
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Mali – last 2
WD
25 Sep
vs Cape Verde Islands
3–1
W
31 Mar
@ Russia
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liberia and Mali.
Our pick is Mali to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Liberia vs Mali?
On our numbers Liberia have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Mali 68%.
How many goals will there be in Liberia vs Mali?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liberia vs Mali?
Our predicted score is Liberia 1–2 Mali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Liberia vs Mali?
Liberia vs Mali (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Burundi2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Ethiopia0
Senegal1
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Tanzania1
Cape Verde Islands1
Rwanda2