Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 55% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUganda to win ✓60% · @1.91
Double chanceUganda or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Uganda vs Libya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 29 September the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Uganda against Libya at Hoima City Stadium. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Uganda are 2nd on 13 points after 6 matches; Libya are 4th with 5.
Current form
Libya, last 3: DDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Botswana, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Uganda 2.0 xG, Libya 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Uganda 60%, draw 27%, Libya 14%.
Lower-risk option: Uganda or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Uganda or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Uganda 2–0 Libya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Uganda60%fair 1.68 · @1.91
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @2.90
Libya14%fair 7.19 · @4.00
3.00Expected goals
2.04Uganda xG
0.96Libya xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Uganda 2.0 – 1.0 Libya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Uganda to win✓
60%
1.68
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Uganda or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Uganda (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Uganda -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Uganda to score first✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Uganda ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Uganda / FT Uganda✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Uganda – last 1
D
24 Sep
@ Tunisia
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Libya – last 3
DDD
24 Sep
vs Botswana
2–2
D
31 Mar
@ Liberia
2–2
D
27 Mar
vs Niger
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Uganda and Libya.
Our pick is Uganda or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Uganda vs Libya?
On our numbers Uganda have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Libya 14%.
How many goals will there be in Uganda vs Libya?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Uganda vs Libya?
Our predicted score is Uganda 2–0 Libya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Uganda vs Libya?
Uganda vs Libya (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Hoima City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Burundi2
Algeria2
Comoros1
Namibia0
Ethiopia0
Senegal1
Lesotho0
Morocco2
Mozambique4
Sudan1
South Sudan0
Egypt5
Madagascar1
Tanzania1
Cape Verde Islands1