Roda 62%Draw 22%Helmond Sport 16%Expected goals 1.57 – 0.62
84%
Betarazi pick
Roda or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRoda to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceRoda or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.66
Roda vs Helmond Sport: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 14 August the Eerste Divisie brings Roda against Helmond Sport at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Roda are 14th, lower half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Helmond Sport are 7th (upper half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Roda, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Emmen, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Helmond Sport, last 5: DWDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with De Graafschap, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (20 Mar 2026) it ended Roda 1–1 Helmond Sport.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Roda 1.6 xG, Helmond Sport 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Roda 62%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport 16%.
Lower-risk option: Roda or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Roda or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Roda 1–0 Helmond Sport. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Roda62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.85
Helmond Sport16%fair 6.22 · @4.20
2.20Expected goals
1.57Roda xG
0.62Helmond Sport xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Roda 1.6 – 0.6 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Roda or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Roda vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Roda have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Helmond Sport 16%.
How many goals will there be in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is Roda 1–0 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Roda vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
