Birmingham 59%Draw 25%Bristol City 16%Expected goals 1.37 – 0.53
84%
Betarazi pick
Birmingham or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 59% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBirmingham to win ✗59% · @1.84
Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.52
Birmingham vs Bristol City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Birmingham welcome Bristol City to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 22 August (12:30 WAT). In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Bristol City are 17th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Birmingham, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sheffield Utd, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Bristol City, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Millwall, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Birmingham, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Bristol City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 1.4 xG, Bristol City 0.5 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 59%, draw 25%, Bristol City 16%.
Lower-risk option: Birmingham or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Birmingham or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–0 Bristol City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham59%fair 1.69 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.55
Bristol City16%fair 6.34 · @4.10
1.89Expected goals
1.37Birmingham xG
0.53Bristol City xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.4 – 0.5 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✗
59%
1.69
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Birmingham or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.70
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Bristol City +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.38 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.14
First team to score
Birmingham to score first
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.52
–
Recent results
Birmingham – last 6
DWDWWW
15 Aug
@ Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Swansea
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Crewe
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Burton Albion
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bristol City – last 6
LLDDWL
15 Aug
vs Millwall
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Walsall
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Exeter City
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Plymouth
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Newcastle
4–1
W
29 Jul
@ Forest Green
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Bristol City.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Our pick is Birmingham or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Birmingham vs Bristol City?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bristol City 16%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–0 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Birmingham vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
