Southampton 60%Draw 24%Stoke City 15%Expected goals 2.02 – 0.95
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultSouthampton to win ✓60% · @1.63
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Southampton vs Stoke City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 22 August: Southampton v Stoke City in the Championship, played at St. Mary's Stadium. In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Stoke City are 3rd (among the top four) with 29.
Current form
Southampton, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Watford, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Stoke City, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Swansea, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 2.0 xG, Stoke City 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 60%, draw 24%, Stoke City 15%.
Lower-risk option: Southampton or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 2–0 Stoke City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southampton60%fair 1.65 · @1.63
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.95
Stoke City15%fair 6.59 · @4.90
2.97Expected goals
2.02Southampton xG
0.95Stoke City xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.0 – 0.9 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
60%
1.65
1.63
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Draw no bet
Southampton (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Southampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.17
First team to score
Southampton to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Southampton – last 6
LWWWWD
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Colchester
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Preußen Münster
2–1
W
24 Jul
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Eastleigh
3–1
W
12 May
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Stoke City – last 6
LWDWWD
15 Aug
vs Swansea
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Valencia
1–1
D
28 Jul
vs Everton
1–0
W
21 Jul
@ Chester
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Crewe
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Stoke City.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Southampton vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Southampton have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stoke City 15%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Stoke City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Stoke City?
Southampton vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
