Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Derby to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDerby to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceDerby or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.91
Derby vs Cardiff: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derby welcome Cardiff to Pride Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 22 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Cardiff are 14th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Derby, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Charlton, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Cardiff, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wrexham, at home. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Cardiff, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.8 xG, Cardiff 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 64%, draw 22%, Cardiff 14%.
Lower-risk option: Derby or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Derby to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Derby or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–0 Cardiff. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby64%fair 1.56 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.55
Cardiff14%fair 7.25 · @4.00
2.53Expected goals
1.83Derby xG
0.71Cardiff xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Derby 1.8 – 0.7 Cardiff expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✗
64%
1.56
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Derby or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.90
Draw no bet
Derby (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Derby -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Derby to score first
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Derby ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.91
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
LLDLWL
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Burton Albion
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Mansfield Town
3–1
W
28 Jul
vs Valencia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cardiff – last 6
DWWWWL
17 Aug
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Swindon Town
3–2
W
1 Aug
vs AS Roma
4–1
W
25 Jul
@ Forest Green
5–1
W
14 Jul
@ Cork City
6–1
W
11 Jul
vs FC Midtjylland
0–6
L
3.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Cardiff.
Our pick is Derby or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Cardiff?
On our numbers Derby have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cardiff 14%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Cardiff?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–0 Cardiff, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Cardiff?
Derby vs Cardiff (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
