West Ham 68%Draw 20%Derby 12%Expected goals 2.26 – 0.86
80%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultWest Ham to win ✓68% · @1.36
Double chanceWest Ham or draw ✓88% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
West Ham vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 5 September: West Ham v Derby in the Championship, played at London Stadium. In the table, West Ham are 9th, upper half, on 23 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
West Ham, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Wolves, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Derby, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Portsmouth, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours West Ham, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give West Ham 2.3 xG, Derby 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – West Ham 68%, draw 20%, Derby 12%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: West Ham 2–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
West Ham68%fair 1.47 · @1.36
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @4.75
Derby12%fair 8.54 · @8.25
3.13Expected goals
2.26West Ham xG
0.86Derby xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: West Ham 2.3 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
West Ham to win✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Double chance
West Ham or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
West Ham (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
West Ham -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.15
First team to score
West Ham to score first✓
69%
1.44
–
Half-time result
West Ham ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT West Ham / FT West Ham✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.31
–
Recent results
West Ham – last 6
WDWLDW
1 Sep
vs Wolves
4–2
W
29 Aug
@ Watford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Southampton
4–1
W
22 Aug
vs Charlton
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Burnley
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Portsmouth
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
WLDLLD
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between West Ham and Derby.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win West Ham vs Derby?
On our numbers West Ham have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Derby 12%.
How many goals will there be in West Ham vs Derby?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for West Ham vs Derby?
Our predicted score is West Ham 2–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is West Ham vs Derby?
West Ham vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at London Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
