Value bet: Wrexham to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultWrexham to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Derby vs Wrexham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 10 October: Derby v Wrexham in the Championship, played at Pride Park Stadium. In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Wrexham are 15th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Derby, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Burnley, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Wrexham, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Southampton, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Wrexham, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.2 xG, Wrexham 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 33%, draw 23%, Wrexham 44%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Wrexham to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Wrexham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby33%fair 3.04 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Wrexham44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
2.63Expected goals
1.20Derby xG
1.43Wrexham xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Derby 1.2 – 1.4 Wrexham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wrexham to win✗
44%
2.28
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Wrexham (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Wrexham to score first✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wrexham / FT Wrexham✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
DLLLWL
19 Sep
@ Burnley
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wrexham – last 6
WLDDWL
19 Sep
vs Southampton
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ West Ham
0–6
L
8 Sep
vs Burnley
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Swansea
0–0
D
2 Sep
@ Millwall
3–0
W
28 Aug
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Wrexham.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Derby vs Wrexham?
On our numbers Derby have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wrexham 44%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Wrexham?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Wrexham?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Wrexham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Wrexham?
Derby vs Wrexham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
