Value bet: Northampton to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNorthampton to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceNorthampton or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.34
Northampton vs Crawley Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Northampton welcome Crawley Town to Sixfields Stadium for a League Two fixture on Tuesday 1 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, Northampton are 21st, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; Crawley Town are 24th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Northampton, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Gillingham, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Crawley Town, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Bristol Rovers, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Northampton 1.6 xG, Crawley Town 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Northampton 65%, draw 20%, Crawley Town 15%.
Lower-risk option: Northampton or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Northampton to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.31, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Northampton 1–0 Crawley Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Northampton65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.75
Crawley Town15%fair 6.72 · @4.50
2.12Expected goals
1.58Northampton xG
0.54Crawley Town xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Northampton 1.6 – 0.5 Crawley Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Northampton to win✗
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Northampton or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.73
Draw no bet
Northampton (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Northampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.12
First team to score
Northampton to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Northampton / FT Northampton✗
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.34
–
Recent results
Northampton – last 6
DLLDLW
29 Aug
@ Gillingham
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Crewe
0–1
L
18 Aug
vs Brighton U21
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs Swindon Town
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Leicester
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Solihull Moors
4–2
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Crawley Town – last 6
LWLLWL
29 Aug
vs Bristol Rovers
0–2
L
22 Aug
@ Rochdale
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Crewe
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Watford
0–1
L
3 Aug
@ York
2–0
W
31 Jul
vs Reading
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Northampton and Crawley Town.
What is the prediction for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
On our numbers Northampton have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Crawley Town 15%.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our predicted score is Northampton 1–0 Crawley Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton vs Crawley Town (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
