Northampton 61%Draw 25%Newport County 14%Expected goals 1.99 – 0.89
86%
Betarazi pick
Northampton or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Northampton to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNorthampton to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceNorthampton or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Northampton vs Newport County: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Newport County travel to face Northampton on Saturday 5 September in the League Two, with Sixfields Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Northampton are 21st, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; Newport County are 14th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Northampton, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Crawley Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Newport County, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Salford City, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Northampton 2.0 xG, Newport County 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Northampton 61%, draw 25%, Newport County 14%.
Lower-risk option: Northampton or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Northampton to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Northampton or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Northampton 1–0 Newport County. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Northampton61%fair 1.64 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.30
Newport County14%fair 7.19 · @4.60
2.88Expected goals
1.99Northampton xG
0.89Newport County xG
52%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Northampton 2.0 – 0.9 Newport County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Northampton to win✓
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Northampton or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Draw no bet
Northampton (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Northampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Northampton to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Northampton ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Northampton / FT Northampton✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Northampton – last 6
DDLLDL
1 Sep
vs Crawley Town
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Gillingham
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Crewe
0–1
L
18 Aug
vs Brighton U21
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs Swindon Town
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Leicester
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Newport County – last 6
LDLWDL
1 Sep
@ Salford City
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Tranmere
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Bristol Rovers
3–5
L
15 Aug
vs Rochdale
3–0
W
8 Aug
@ AFC Wimbledon
1–1
D
4 Aug
vs AS Roma
1–4
L
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Northampton and Newport County.
What is the prediction for Northampton vs Newport County?
Our pick is Northampton or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Northampton vs Newport County?
On our numbers Northampton have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Newport County 14%.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Newport County?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Northampton vs Newport County?
Our predicted score is Northampton 1–0 Newport County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Northampton vs Newport County?
Northampton vs Newport County (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
