Alcoyano vs Poblense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 brings Alcoyano against Poblense at Estadio El Collao. Kick-off: 10:30 WAT. In the table, Alcoyano are 7th, upper half, on 14 points after 9 matches; Poblense are 11th (lower half) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alcoyano, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Castellón II, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Poblense, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Castellonense, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alcoyano 1.2 xG, Poblense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alcoyano 40%, draw 26%, Poblense 33%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.15.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.89, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcoyano 1–1 Poblense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alcoyano40%fair 2.48 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @2.62
Poblense33%fair 3.01 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.20Alcoyano xG
1.05Poblense xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Alcoyano 1.2 – 1.1 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcoyano to win✓
40%
2.48
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Alcoyano (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Poblense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Alcoyano to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcoyano / FT Alcoyano✓
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.58
–
Recent results
Alcoyano – last 6
LDWWDD
12 Sep
@ Castellón II
0–3
L
5 Sep
vs Cieza
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Hércules
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ La Nucía
2–1
W
17 May
@ SS Reyes
1–1
D
3 May
@ Porreres
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Poblense – last 6
LLWDWW
13 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ La Nucía
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Atlético Baleares
1–0
W
24 May
@ Águilas
0–0
D
17 May
vs Numancia
2–1
W
10 May
@ Numancia
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcoyano and Poblense.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Alcoyano vs Poblense?
On our numbers Alcoyano have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Poblense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alcoyano vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcoyano vs Poblense?
Our predicted score is Alcoyano 1–1 Poblense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alcoyano vs Poblense?
Alcoyano vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Collao.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
