La Nucía 59%Draw 26%Lorca Deportiva 15%Expected goals 1.37 – 0.53
85%
Betarazi pick
La Nucía or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: La Nucía to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLa Nucía to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceLa Nucía or draw ✗85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.88
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lorca Deportiva travel to face La Nucía on Sunday 11 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, La Nucía are 5th, upper half, on 15 points after 9 matches; Lorca Deportiva are 8th (upper half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
La Nucía, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Deportiva Minera, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lorca Deportiva, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Castellón II, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours La Nucía, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Lorca Deportiva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give La Nucía 1.4 xG, Lorca Deportiva 0.5 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – La Nucía 59%, draw 26%, Lorca Deportiva 15%.
Lower-risk option: La Nucía or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: La Nucía to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was La Nucía or draw (85%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: La Nucía 1–0 Lorca Deportiva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
La Nucía59%fair 1.70 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.90
Lorca Deportiva15%fair 6.53 · @3.90
1.90Expected goals
1.37La Nucía xG
0.53Lorca Deportiva xG
48%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: La Nucía 1.4 – 0.5 Lorca Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Nucía to win✗
59%
1.70
1.95 ▲
Double chance
La Nucía or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.67
Draw no bet
La Nucía (draw no bet)✗
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Lorca Deportiva +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.05
–
First team to score
La Nucía to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Nucía / FT La Nucía✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.88
–
Recent results
La Nucía – last 6
LWWWWL
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Yeclano
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Poblense
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Alcoyano
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
LWDLDL
3 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Orihuela
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Elche II
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Águilas
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Nucía and Lorca Deportiva.
What is the prediction for La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
Our pick is La Nucía or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
On our numbers La Nucía have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lorca Deportiva 15%.
How many goals will there be in La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
Our predicted score is La Nucía 1–0 Lorca Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
