Value bet: Alcoyano to win @ 3.70 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUcam Murcia to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 brings Ucam Murcia against Alcoyano at Estadio de La Condomina. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Ucam Murcia are 2nd, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Alcoyano are 7th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Ucam Murcia, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Elche II, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Alcoyano, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mallorca II, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alcoyano, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Ucam Murcia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ucam Murcia 1.6 xG, Alcoyano 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ucam Murcia 45%, draw 24%, Alcoyano 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Alcoyano to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ucam Murcia 1–1 Alcoyano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ucam Murcia45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @2.88
Alcoyano30%fair 3.32 · @3.70
2.80Expected goals
1.57Ucam Murcia xG
1.23Alcoyano xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–07%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ucam Murcia 1.6 – 1.2 Alcoyano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ucam Murcia to win✓
45%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Ucam Murcia (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Alcoyano +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Ucam Murcia to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ucam Murcia / FT Ucam Murcia✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Ucam Murcia – last 6
WLWWLL
3 Oct
@ Elche II
5–1
W
27 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Atlético Baleares
4–1
W
13 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Castellonense
1–2
L
3 May
@ Xerez
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alcoyano – last 6
WWWLDW
4 Oct
@ Mallorca II
1–0
W
27 Sep
vs Deportiva Minera
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Poblense
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Castellón II
0–3
L
5 Sep
vs Cieza
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Hércules
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ucam Murcia and Alcoyano.
What is the prediction for Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
On our numbers Ucam Murcia have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alcoyano 30%.
How many goals will there be in Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Our predicted score is Ucam Murcia 1–1 Alcoyano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de La Condomina.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
