Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCastellón II to win ✗41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Poblense vs Castellón II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Castellón II travel to face Poblense on Sunday 11 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Poblense are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Castellón II are 3rd (among the top four) with 18.
Current form
Poblense, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atlético Baleares, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Castellón II, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lorca Deportiva, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Castellón II, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Poblense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Poblense 1.3 xG, Castellón II 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Poblense 36%, draw 23%, Castellón II 41%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Castellón II to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poblense 1–1 Castellón II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Poblense36%fair 2.81 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Castellón II41%fair 2.43 · @2.80
2.70Expected goals
1.29Poblense xG
1.41Castellón II xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Poblense 1.3 – 1.4 Castellón II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón II to win✗
41%
2.43
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Castellón II (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Poblense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Castellón II to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón II / FT Castellón II✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Recent results
Poblense – last 6
LWLLLW
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Alcoyano
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ La Nucía
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Atlético Baleares
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Castellón II – last 6
WWWWLL
3 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Orihuela
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Valencia II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Alcoyano
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poblense and Castellón II.
What is the prediction for Poblense vs Castellón II?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Poblense vs Castellón II?
On our numbers Poblense have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castellón II 41%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Castellón II?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Castellón II?
Our predicted score is Poblense 1–1 Castellón II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Poblense vs Castellón II?
Poblense vs Castellón II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
