Castellón II 62%Draw 23%La Nucía 15%Expected goals 2.06 – 0.94
85%
Betarazi pick
Castellón II or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCastellón II to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceCastellón II or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.07
Castellón II vs La Nucía: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Castellón II welcome La Nucía for a Segunda División RFEF Group 3 fixture on Sunday 25 October (12:00 WAT). In the table, Castellón II are 3rd, among the top four, on 18 points after 9 matches; La Nucía are 5th (upper half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Castellón II, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Poblense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
La Nucía, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Lorca Deportiva, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castellón II 2.1 xG, La Nucía 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castellón II 62%, draw 23%, La Nucía 15%.
Lower-risk option: Castellón II or draw (85%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Castellón II to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Castellón II or draw (85%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castellón II 2–0 La Nucía. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castellón II62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.20
La Nucía15%fair 6.61 · @3.40
3.00Expected goals
2.06Castellón II xG
0.94La Nucía xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Castellón II 2.1 – 0.9 La Nucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón II to win✓
62%
1.62
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Castellón II or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Draw no bet
Castellón II (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Castellón II -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Castellón II to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Castellón II ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón II / FT Castellón II✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Castellón II – last 6
LWWWWL
11 Oct
@ Poblense
1–2
L
3 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Orihuela
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Valencia II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Alcoyano
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
La Nucía – last 6
LLWWWW
11 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Yeclano
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Poblense
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellón II and La Nucía.
What is the prediction for Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Our pick is Castellón II or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Castellón II vs La Nucía?
On our numbers Castellón II have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and La Nucía 15%.
How many goals will there be in Castellón II vs La Nucía?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Our predicted score is Castellón II 2–0 La Nucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Castellón II vs La Nucía (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
