Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Poblense to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPoblense to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chancePoblense or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.12
Poblense vs Peña Deportiva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Sunday 25 October: Poblense v Peña Deportiva in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Poblense are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Peña Deportiva are 18th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Poblense, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Yeclano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Peña Deportiva, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Orihuela, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Poblense, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Peña Deportiva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Poblense 1.7 xG, Peña Deportiva 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Poblense 62%, draw 24%, Peña Deportiva 14%.
Lower-risk option: Poblense or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Poblense to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Poblense or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poblense 1–0 Peña Deportiva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Poblense62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Peña Deportiva14%fair 7.38 · @3.90
2.36Expected goals
1.70Poblense xG
0.66Peña Deportiva xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Poblense 1.7 – 0.7 Peña Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Poblense to win✓
62%
1.61
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Poblense or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.91
Draw no bet
Poblense (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Poblense -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Poblense to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poblense / FT Poblense✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.12
–
Recent results
Poblense – last 6
DWLWLL
18 Oct
@ Yeclano
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs Castellón II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Alcoyano
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Peña Deportiva – last 6
WLLLDL
11 Oct
vs Orihuela
3–1
W
4 Oct
@ Valencia II
2–3
L
27 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Elche II
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Yeclano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Deportiva Minera
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poblense and Peña Deportiva.
What is the prediction for Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Our pick is Poblense or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
On our numbers Poblense have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Peña Deportiva 14%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Our predicted score is Poblense 1–0 Peña Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Poblense vs Peña Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
