Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely) Prediction & Expected Goals (10 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAberystwyth Town to win ✗45% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗63% · @1.62

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.65

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely): Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Caerau (Ely) travel to face Aberystwyth Town on Saturday 10 October in the FAW Championship, with Park Avenue the venue – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Aberystwyth Town are 2nd, among the top four, on 25 points after 11 matches; Caerau (Ely) are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Aberystwyth Town, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Pontypridd Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Caerau (Ely), last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Afan Lido, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.

Momentum favours Aberystwyth Town, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Caerau (Ely).

Head to head

When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Aberystwyth Town 0–4 Caerau (Ely).

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Aberystwyth Town 1.9 xG, Caerau (Ely) 1.6 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 55% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Aberystwyth Town 45%, draw 20%, Caerau (Ely) 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aberystwyth Town 2–1 Caerau (Ely). Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Aberystwyth Town45%fair 2.21 · @2.20

Draw20%fair 5.00 · @3.60

Caerau (Ely)35%fair 2.88 · @2.60

3.54Expected goals

1.90Aberystwyth Town xG

1.64Caerau (Ely) xG

55%Both score

63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%

2–19%

1–27%

2–27%

1–06%

3–15%

From our goals model: Aberystwyth Town 1.9 – 1.6 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Aberystwyth Town to win ✗	45%	2.21	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	55%	1.81	–
Draw no bet	Aberystwyth Town (draw no bet) ✗	57%	1.77	–
Asian handicap	Caerau (Ely) +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	70%	1.44	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	87%	1.15	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	63%	1.58	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	53%	1.89	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	72%	1.39	–
First team to score	Aberystwyth Town to score first ✗	52%	1.92	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	36%	2.79	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Aberystwyth Town / FT Aberystwyth Town ✗	27%	3.69	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.65	–

Aberystwyth Town – last 6

WDWWWW

3 Oct	@ Pontypridd Town	3–1	W
25 Sep	vs Swansea University	0–0	D
12 Sep	@ Caerphilly Athletic	3–2	W
31 Aug	vs llanelli AFC	4–0	W
28 Aug	vs Pontardawe Town	1–0	W
22 Aug	vs Llantwit Major	5–1	W

2.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Caerau (Ely) – last 6

WWWWLL

2 Oct	vs Afan Lido	2–0	W
26 Sep	@ Cardiff Draconians	3–1	W
11 Sep	vs llanelli AFC	3–0	W
31 Aug	vs Treowen Stars	3–2	W
28 Aug	@ Baglan Dragons	1–3	L
21 Aug	vs Swansea University	1–5	L

2.2Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

On our numbers Aberystwyth Town have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Caerau (Ely) 35%.

How many goals will there be in Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Our predicted score is Aberystwyth Town 2–1 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Park Avenue.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely): numbers & prediction