Baglan Dragons v Ynyshir Albions Prediction & Expected Goals (6 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultYnyshir Albions to win ✗44% · @2.12

Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.59

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42

Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:30 WAT, Friday 6 November: Baglan Dragons v Ynyshir Albions in the FAW Championship. In the table, Baglan Dragons are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Ynyshir Albions are 6th (upper half) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Baglan Dragons, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Treowen Stars, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Ynyshir Albions, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Swansea University, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.

Momentum favours Ynyshir Albions, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Baglan Dragons.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Baglan Dragons 1.2 xG, Ynyshir Albions 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Baglan Dragons 35%, draw 21%, Ynyshir Albions 44%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.59.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Baglan Dragons 1–1 Ynyshir Albions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Baglan Dragons35%fair 2.86 · @2.86

Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.32

Ynyshir Albions44%fair 2.29 · @2.12

2.65Expected goals

1.23Baglan Dragons xG

1.42Ynyshir Albions xG

60%Both score

51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–110%

1–29%

1–09%

2–18%

0–27%

From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 1.2 – 1.4 Ynyshir Albions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Ynyshir Albions to win ✗	44%	2.29	2.12
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	79%	1.27	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	60%	1.67	1.59
Draw no bet	Ynyshir Albions (draw no bet) ✗	56%	1.80	–
Asian handicap	Baglan Dragons +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.34	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	51%	1.95	1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.34
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Ynyshir Albions to score first	50%	2.01	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.35	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Ynyshir Albions / FT Ynyshir Albions ✗	24%	4.13	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.42	–

Baglan Dragons – last 6

LWDWLL

30 Oct	vs Treowen Stars	0–1	L
17 Oct	@ Llantwit Fardre	3–1	W
10 Oct	vs Pontypridd Town	1–1	D
2 Oct	@ llanelli AFC	2–1	W
25 Sep	vs Carmarthen Town	1–2	L
12 Sep	@ Cardiff Draconians	1–2	L

1.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Ynyshir Albions – last 6

WLWWDD

31 Oct	vs Swansea University	4–2	W
16 Oct	@ Cardiff MET	0–4	L
10 Oct	vs llanelli AFC	6–2	W
3 Oct	@ Treowen Stars	2–1	W
26 Sep	vs Trethomas Bluebirds	1–1	D
12 Sep	@ Carmarthen Town	2–2	D

2.5Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ynyshir Albions 44%.

How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

Our predicted score is Baglan Dragons 1–1 Ynyshir Albions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Baglan Dragons v Ynyshir Albions: numbers & prediction