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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Northampton v Gillingham: numbers & prediction

EFL Trophy · England · Sixfields Stadium

Northampton

LLDWL
1–2
FT

Gillingham

LWLDL
Northampton 46%Draw 20%Gillingham 34% Expected goals 1.97 – 1.67
81%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultNorthampton to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.74

Northampton vs Gillingham: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Tuesday 10 November: Northampton v Gillingham in the EFL Trophy, played at Sixfields Stadium. In the table, Northampton are 1st on 9 points after 3 matches; Gillingham are 3rd with 3.

Current form

Northampton, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to York, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Gillingham, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Barrow, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (29 Aug 2026) it ended Gillingham 1–1 Northampton.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Northampton 2.0 xG, Gillingham 1.7 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Northampton 46%, draw 20%, Gillingham 34%.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.73.
  • Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Northampton 1–1 Gillingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Northampton46%fair 2.16 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.70
Gillingham34%fair 2.95 · @2.88
3.64Expected goals
1.97Northampton xG
1.67Gillingham xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
3–16%
1–05%

From our goals model: Northampton 2.0 – 1.7 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNorthampton to win ✗46%2.162.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80%1.251.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓63%1.581.73 ▲
Draw no betNorthampton (draw no bet) ✗58%1.73–
Asian handicapGillingham +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81%1.231.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62%1.621.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓60%1.671.36
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓76%1.311.12
First team to scoreNorthampton to score first ✗53%1.89–
Half-time resultNorthampton ahead at half-time ✗36%2.76–
Half-time / full-timeHT Northampton / FT Northampton ✗28%3.57–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.74–

Recent results

Northampton – last 6

LLDWLW
7 Nov@ York0–4L
3 Novvs Oldham0–1L
31 Oct@ Accrington ST1–1D
24 Octvs Colchester2–0W
20 Octvs Tranmere0–1L
17 Oct@ Grimsby2–0W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gillingham – last 6

LWLDLW
7 Novvs Barrow0–1L
31 Oct@ Shrewsbury2–1W
24 Octvs Grimsby1–4L
20 Octvs Port Vale1–1D
17 Oct@ Accrington ST1–3L
13 Octvs Brighton U214–3W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Aug 2026Gillingham v Northampton1–1
Northampton vs Gillingham head-to-head page →

EFL Trophy table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Northampton3300+59
2Walsall3201+15
3Shrewsbury3102-13
4Chelsea U213003-51

More EFL Trophy predictions

League hub
FT Crewe1 Wigan2 141%2.20X22%3.25237%2.88 2.0–1.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 84%@1.20 ✓
FT Mansfield Town3 Chesterfield5 142%2.05X18%4.00240%2.62 2.0–1.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.44 ✓
FT Stockport County0 Tranmere0 Pens 4–3 168%1.30X20%5.25212%6.25 2.7–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 71%@1.36 ✗
FT Burton Albion0 Notts County3 133%2.45X19%3.90248%2.25 1.4–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.50 ✗
FT Grimsby0 Nottingham Forest U213 165%1.73X15%3.90220%3.60 2.4–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 74%@1.20 ✓
FT Huddersfield4 Liverpool U210 165%1.28X16%5.00218%7.00 2.7–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Oxford United4 Cheltenham0 169%1.22X20%6.00211%8.50 2.8–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.36 ✓
FT Leicester2 Walsall1 174%1.22X17%6.2529%7.50 3.4–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 81%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Northampton vs Gillingham?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Northampton vs Gillingham?

On our numbers Northampton have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gillingham 34%.

How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Gillingham?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Northampton vs Gillingham?

Our predicted score is Northampton 1–1 Gillingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.

When is Northampton vs Gillingham?

Northampton vs Gillingham (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.