Twente v Qarabag Prediction & Expected Goals (20 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultTwente to win ✗60% · @1.63

Double chanceTwente or draw ✗85% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.77

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16

Twente vs Qarabag: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 20 August the UEFA Europa Conference League brings Twente against Qarabag at De Grolsch Veste. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.

Current form

Twente, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over PEC Zwolle, at home. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Qarabag, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Şamaxı FK, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Qarabag, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Twente.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Twente 2.2 xG, Qarabag 1.1 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 59%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Twente 60%, draw 24%, Qarabag 15%.
Lower-risk option: Twente or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.77.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Twente 2–1 Qarabag. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Twente60%fair 1.65 · @1.63

Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.85

Qarabag15%fair 6.49 · @5.10

3.27Expected goals

2.19Twente xG

1.08Qarabag xG

59%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

2–09%

1–19%

1–08%

3–17%

3–07%

From our goals model: Twente 2.2 – 1.1 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Twente to win ✗	60%	1.65	1.63
Double chance	Twente or draw ✗	85%	1.18	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	59%	1.68	1.77 ▲
Draw no bet	Twente (draw no bet) ✗	80%	1.25	–
Asian handicap	Twente -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.60	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	79%	1.26	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	64%	1.57	1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.13
First team to score	Twente to score first ✗	64%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Twente ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.15	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Twente / FT Twente ✗	41%	2.46	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.16	–

Twente – last 6

WDLWLD

16 Aug	vs PEC Zwolle	3–1	W
13 Aug	@ Dunajska Streda	3–3	D
9 Aug	@ Heerenveen	0–1	L
6 Aug	vs Dunajska Streda	6–0	W
2 Aug	@ Genk	1–2	L
30 Jul	@ Ferencvarosi TC	2–2	D

2.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Qarabag – last 6

WWLDDW

17 Aug	vs Şamaxı FK	3–1	W
13 Aug	vs Dynamo Kyiv	2–0	W
6 Aug	@ Dynamo Kyiv	0–1	L
30 Jul	@ CSKA Sofia	0–0	D
23 Jul	vs CSKA Sofia	0–0	D
16 Jul	@ Vestri	3–0	W

1.3Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Twente vs Qarabag?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Twente vs Qarabag?

On our numbers Twente have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Qarabag 15%.

How many goals will there be in Twente vs Qarabag?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Twente vs Qarabag?

Our predicted score is Twente 2–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Twente vs Qarabag?

Twente vs Qarabag (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Grolsch Veste.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Twente v Qarabag: numbers & prediction