Bayern München 44%Draw 20%Arsenal 36%Expected goals 1.98 – 1.77
68%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Arsenal to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBayern München to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.28
Bayern München vs Arsenal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Wednesday 21 October: Bayern München v Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, played at Allianz Arena. In the table, Bayern München are 13th, upper half, on 8 points after 4 matches; Arsenal are 3rd (among the top four) with 10. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bayern München, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 6–1 win over RB Leipzig, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 4.2 a game lately.
Arsenal, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nottingham Forest, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bayern München 2.0 xG, Arsenal 1.8 xG – a total near 3.8. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 72% and GG at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bayern München 44%, draw 20%, Arsenal 36%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Arsenal to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.48, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bayern München44%fair 2.27 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.70
Arsenal36%fair 2.78 · @3.10
3.75Expected goals
1.98Bayern München xG
1.77Arsenal xG
68%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
2–18%
1–27%
2–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Bayern München 2.0 – 1.8 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✗
44%
2.27
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.48
1.53
Draw no bet
Bayern München (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Arsenal +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
First team to score
Bayern München to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Bayern München ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.28
–
Recent results
Bayern München – last 6
WDDWWW
17 Oct
vs RB Leipzig
6–1
W
13 Oct
@ Viking
3–3
D
10 Oct
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Union Berlin
7–0
W
13 Sep
@ SV Elversberg
2–1
W
10 Sep
vs BodoGlimt
5–0
W
4.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
WWWLWW
18 Oct
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
13 Oct
vs Lille
3–0
W
10 Oct
vs Leeds
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Brighton
0–3
L
15 Sep
@ Ipswich
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Sunderland
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayern München and Arsenal.
What is the prediction for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Bayern München vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Bayern München have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Arsenal 36%.
How many goals will there be in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Bayern München vs Arsenal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
