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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Academica v Amarante: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal · Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra

Academica

WWLLL
3–2
FT

Amarante

LWDLW
Academica 59%Draw 23%Amarante 18% Expected goals 2.27 – 1.23
82%
Betarazi pick

Academica or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1

Value bet: Academica to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultAcademica to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceAcademica or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45

Academica vs Amarante: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Academica v Amarante in the Taça De Portugal, played at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.

Current form

Academica, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over União de Leiria, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Amarante, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Portimonense, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (29 Mar 2026) it ended Amarante 1–1 Academica.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Academica 2.3 xG, Amarante 1.2 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Academica 59%, draw 23%, Amarante 18%.
  • Lower-risk option: Academica or draw (82%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
  • Price worth noting: Academica to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Academica or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Academica 2–1 Amarante. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Academica59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.20
Amarante18%fair 5.59 · @3.50
3.50Expected goals
2.27Academica xG
1.23Amarante xG
60%Both score
68%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%

From our goals model: Academica 2.3 – 1.2 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAcademica to win ✓59%1.691.85 ▲
Double chanceAcademica or draw ✓82%1.221.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓60%1.651.70
Draw no betAcademica (draw no bet) ✓77%1.30–
Asian handicapAcademica -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗54%1.86–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗73%1.38–
First team to scoreAcademica to score first63%1.59–
Half-time resultAcademica ahead at half-time ✗46%2.18–
Half-time / full-timeHT Academica / FT Academica ✗40%2.53–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.45–

Recent results

Academica – last 6

WWLLLW
11 Oct@ União de Leiria2–0W
18 Sep@ Real4–1W
11 Sepvs Benfica B0–3L
5 Sep@ Penafiel1–4L
29 Augvs Lusitânia Lourosa0–2L
21 Aug@ Tondela2–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Amarante – last 6

LWDLWD
10 Octvs Portimonense1–2L
20 Sep@ Ponte da Barca2–0W
13 Sepvs União de Leiria2–2D
6 Sep@ Leixoes1–3L
30 Augvs Benfica B1–0W
22 Aug@ Vizela0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Mar 2026Amarante v Academica1–1
Academica vs Amarante head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Recreativa de Lamelas0 Vitória SC1 19%41.00X14%15.00277%1.03 1.2–3.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 81%@1.20 ✗
FT Atlético CP1 Vizela0 142%3.25X22%3.20236%2.00 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.73 ✗
FT Sanjoanense1 Nacional0 113%6.50X18%4.00269%1.36 1.2–2.8xG 2Nacional to win 69%@1.36 ✗
FT Farense3 AD Marco 090 164%1.30X21%4.40215%8.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Farense to win 64%@1.30 ✓
FT Vianense1 Leixoes0 114%5.00X21%3.30265%1.57 1.9–3.5xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.91 ✗
FT Florgrade1 Portimonense2 113%5.50X21%3.50266%1.50 0.0–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 65%@1.85 ✗
FT Fazendense1 Estrela2 16%29.00X16%6.50278%1.11 0.9–3.1xG NGNot both teams to score 50%@1.30 ✗
FT AVS1 Moreirense0 126%3.20X23%3.00251%2.05 0.8–1.2xG 2Moreirense to win 51%@2.05 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Academica vs Amarante?

Our pick is Academica or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Academica vs Amarante?

On our numbers Academica have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Amarante 18%.

How many goals will there be in Academica vs Amarante?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Academica vs Amarante?

Our predicted score is Academica 2–1 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Academica vs Amarante?

Academica vs Amarante (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.