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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Penafiel v Leça: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Penafiel

LWWWW
0–1
FT

Leça

WWWLW
Penafiel 61%Draw 24%Leça 15% Expected goals 1.75 – 0.75
61%
Betarazi pick

Penafiel to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.62Odds

Picks by market

ResultPenafiel to win ✗61% · @1.62
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61

Penafiel vs Leça: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 17 October the Taça De Portugal brings Penafiel against Leça at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Penafiel, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to AVS, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Leça, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over AD Marco 09, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Leça.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.7 xG, Leça 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 61%, draw 24%, Leça 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Penafiel or draw (85%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Penafiel to win (61%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–0 Leça. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Penafiel61%fair 1.64 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.40
Leça15%fair 6.55 · @4.60
2.50Expected goals
1.75Penafiel xG
0.75Leça xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Penafiel 1.7 – 0.8 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPenafiel to win ✗61%1.641.62
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗85%1.181.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.841.70
Draw no betPenafiel (draw no bet) ✗80%1.25–
Asian handicapPenafiel -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scorePenafiel to score first ✗64%1.56–
Half-time resultPenafiel ahead at half-time ✗43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Penafiel / FT Penafiel ✗38%2.62–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.61–

Recent results

Penafiel – last 6

LWWWWW
9 Octvs AVS1–2L
19 Sep@ Oliveirense2–1W
12 Sep@ Felgueiras 19322–1W
5 Sepvs Academica4–1W
30 Aug@ FC Porto B3–0W
23 Augvs Sporting CP B2–0W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Leça – last 6

WWWLWL
10 Octvs AD Marco 092–0W
20 Sep@ Mortágua2–0W
12 Sep@ Trofense4–1W
6 Sepvs Fafe0–3L
23 Aug@ Paredes2–1W
15 Aug@ Guimaraes B0–2L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Leça.

Penafiel vs Leça head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Recreativa de Lamelas0 Vitória SC1 19%41.00X14%15.00277%1.03 1.2–3.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 81%@1.20 ✗
FT Atlético CP1 Vizela0 142%3.25X22%3.20236%2.00 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.73 ✗
FT Sanjoanense1 Nacional0 113%6.50X18%4.00269%1.36 1.2–2.8xG 2Nacional to win 69%@1.36 ✗
FT Farense3 AD Marco 090 164%1.30X21%4.40215%8.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Farense to win 64%@1.30 ✓
FT Vianense1 Leixoes0 114%5.00X21%3.30265%1.57 1.9–3.5xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.91 ✗
FT Florgrade1 Portimonense2 113%5.50X21%3.50266%1.50 0.0–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 65%@1.85 ✗
FT Fazendense1 Estrela2 16%29.00X16%6.50278%1.11 0.9–3.1xG NGNot both teams to score 50%@1.30 ✗
FT AVS1 Moreirense0 126%3.20X23%3.00251%2.05 0.8–1.2xG 2Moreirense to win 51%@2.05 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Leça?

Our pick is Penafiel to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Penafiel vs Leça?

On our numbers Penafiel have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leça 15%.

How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Leça?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Leça?

Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Penafiel vs Leça?

Penafiel vs Leça (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.