Value bet: Defensores de Vilelas to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGimnasia Chivilcoy to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.29
Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Torneo Federal A brings Defensores de Vilelas against Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Defensores de Vilelas are 24th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Gimnasia Chivilcoy are 6th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
Defensores de Vilelas, last 5: DWLDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Boca Unidos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Olimpo Bahia Blanca, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensores de Vilelas 1.0 xG, Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensores de Vilelas 31%, draw 25%, Gimnasia Chivilcoy 44%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Defensores de Vilelas to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.84, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensores de Vilelas31%fair 3.20 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @2.80
Gimnasia Chivilcoy44%fair 2.28 · @2.10
2.21Expected goals
0.98Defensores de Vilelas xG
1.23Gimnasia Chivilcoy xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Defensores de Vilelas 1.0 – 1.2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win✗
44%
2.28
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Gimnasia Chivilcoy (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Defensores de Vilelas +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Gimnasia Chivilcoy to score first
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia Chivilcoy / FT Gimnasia Chivilcoy✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.29
–
Recent results
Defensores de Vilelas – last 6
DWLDLW
20 Sep
@ Boca Unidos
3–3
D
13 Sep
vs Independiente De Chivilcoy
2–0
W
7 Sep
@ Atletico Escobar
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs El Linqueño
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
4–3
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gimnasia Chivilcoy – last 6
LLDWWW
4 Oct
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Douglas Haig
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Bartolomé Mitre
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Defensores de Belgrano VR
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores de Vilelas and Gimnasia Chivilcoy.
What is the prediction for Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
On our numbers Defensores de Vilelas have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gimnasia Chivilcoy 44%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Our predicted score is Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
