Atalanta vs Bologna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie A brings Atalanta against Bologna at New Balance Arena. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Atalanta are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Bologna are 8th (upper half) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atalanta, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cagliari, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Bologna, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Napoli, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atalanta 1.6 xG, Bologna 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atalanta 55%, draw 24%, Bologna 21%.
Lower-risk option: Atalanta or draw (79%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atalanta 1–1 Bologna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atalanta55%fair 1.82 · @1.68
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @4.00
Bologna21%fair 4.76 · @4.45
2.71Expected goals
1.64Atalanta xG
1.06Bologna xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.6 – 1.1 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✗
55%
1.82
1.68
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Draw no bet
Atalanta (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Bologna +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.20
First team to score
Atalanta to score first✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✗
31%
3.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.44
–
Recent results
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLD
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
4 Mar
@ Lazio
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bologna – last 6
WDLLWL
11 May
@ Napoli
3–2
W
3 May
vs Cagliari
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Aston Villa
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Lazio
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Bologna.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atalanta vs Bologna?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bologna 21%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–1 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1