Genoa vs AC Milan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Genoa v AC Milan in the Serie A, played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. In the table, Genoa are 13th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; AC Milan are 4th (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Genoa, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Fiorentina, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
AC Milan, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sassuolo, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 3 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Genoa 1.0 xG, AC Milan 1.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Genoa 21%, draw 26%, AC Milan 54%.
Lower-risk option: AC Milan or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Genoa 0–1 AC Milan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Genoa21%fair 4.86 · @4.60
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.70
AC Milan54%fair 1.86 · @1.72
2.55Expected goals
0.97Genoa xG
1.58AC Milan xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–29%
0–08%
1–08%
From our goals model: Genoa 1.0 – 1.6 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✓
54%
1.86
1.72
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Draw no bet
AC Milan (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Genoa +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
AC Milan to score first
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
31%
3.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.58
–
Recent results
Genoa – last 6
DLWLLW
10 May
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Como
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Juventus
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Udinese
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Hellas Verona
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 6
LWLLWL
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and AC Milan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Genoa have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AC Milan 54%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Genoa 0–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1