Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAS Roma to win ✓60% · @1.53
Double chanceAS Roma or draw ✓81% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
AS Roma vs Lazio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: AS Roma v Lazio in the Serie A, played at Stadio Olimpico. In the table, AS Roma are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 11 matches; Lazio are 1st (leading the league) with 29. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
AS Roma, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Fiorentina, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Lazio, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Inter, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Roma 1.9 xG, Lazio 1.2 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Roma 60%, draw 21%, Lazio 19%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Roma 1–1 Lazio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Roma60%fair 1.66 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.95
Lazio19%fair 5.28 · @6.00
3.09Expected goals
1.93AS Roma xG
1.16Lazio xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: AS Roma 1.9 – 1.2 Lazio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
60%
1.66
1.53
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Lazio +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.11
First team to score
AS Roma to score first✓
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✓
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
AS Roma – last 6
WWLDLD
4 May
vs Fiorentina
4–0
W
10 Apr
vs Pisa
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Inter
2–5
L
19 Mar
vs Bologna
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Como
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bologna
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lazio – last 6
LWDLWW
13 May
vs Inter
0–2
L
4 May
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
27 Apr
vs Udinese
3–3
D
13 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Bologna
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs AC Milan
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Lazio.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AS Roma vs Lazio?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lazio 19%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Lazio?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 1–1 Lazio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma vs Lazio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1