Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNapoli to win ✓62% · @1.35
Double chanceNapoli or draw ✓82% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Pisa vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie A brings Pisa against Napoli at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.
Current form
Pisa, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Cremonese, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Napoli, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Bologna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Napoli, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.5 for Pisa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pisa 1.1 xG, Napoli 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 55% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pisa 18%, draw 20%, Napoli 62%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pisa 1–1 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pisa18%fair 5.62 · @8.30
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @4.75
Napoli62%fair 1.61 · @1.35
3.01Expected goals
1.11Pisa xG
1.90Napoli xG
55%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
2–16%
From our goals model: Pisa 1.1 – 1.9 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✓
62%
1.61
1.35
Double chance
Napoli or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Napoli (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Pisa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
First team to score
Napoli to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Napoli ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
Pisa – last 6
LLLLLW
10 May
@ Cremonese
0–3
L
1 May
vs Lecce
1–2
L
10 Apr
@ AS Roma
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Torino
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Como
0–5
L
15 Mar
vs Cagliari
3–1
W
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
LWWWWL
11 May
vs Bologna
2–3
L
24 Apr
vs Cremonese
4–0
W
6 Apr
vs AC Milan
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cagliari
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Torino
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Atalanta
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pisa and Napoli.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pisa vs Napoli?
On our numbers Pisa have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Napoli 62%.
How many goals will there be in Pisa vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pisa vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Pisa 1–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Pisa vs Napoli?
Pisa vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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