Value bet: Sassuolo to win @ 2.72 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSassuolo to win ✗42% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.01
Sassuolo vs Lecce: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie A brings Sassuolo against Lecce at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Sassuolo are 17th, lower half, on 8 points after 11 matches; Lecce are 14th (lower half) with 10. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sassuolo, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Torino, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Lecce, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Pisa, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lecce, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Sassuolo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sassuolo 1.5 xG, Lecce 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sassuolo 42%, draw 25%, Lecce 33%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Sassuolo to win @2.72 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sassuolo 1–1 Lecce. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sassuolo42%fair 2.39 · @2.72
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.20
Lecce33%fair 3.00 · @2.56
2.75Expected goals
1.52Sassuolo xG
1.23Lecce xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sassuolo 1.5 – 1.2 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sassuolo to win✗
42%
2.39
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Sassuolo (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Lecce +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.08
First team to score
Sassuolo to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sassuolo / FT Sassuolo✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.01
–
Recent results
Sassuolo – last 6
LWDWLL
8 May
@ Torino
1–2
L
3 May
vs AC Milan
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bologna
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lecce – last 5
WDLWW
1 May
@ Pisa
2–1
W
20 Apr
vs Fiorentina
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Atalanta
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Cremonese
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Cagliari
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sassuolo and Lecce.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lecce?
On our numbers Sassuolo have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lecce 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs Lecce?
Our predicted score is Sassuolo 1–1 Lecce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sassuolo vs Lecce?
Sassuolo vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1