MVV vs De Graafschap: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Friday 27 February: MVV v De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie, played at De Geusselt. In the table, MVV are 8th, upper half, on 0 points after 0 matches; De Graafschap are 1st (leading the league) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give MVV 1.5 xG, De Graafschap 1.8 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – MVV 28%, draw 21%, De Graafschap 51%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.35.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: MVV 1–1 De Graafschap. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
MVV28%fair 3.63 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @4.20
De Graafschap51%fair 1.95 · @1.73
3.29Expected goals
1.47MVV xG
1.82De Graafschap xG
68%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
0–17%
2–27%
0–26%
From our goals model: MVV 1.5 – 1.8 De Graafschap expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
MVV
De Graafschap
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
-19%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.54
1.57
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
De Graafschap to win✗
51%
1.95
1.73
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.46
1.35
Draw no bet
De Graafschap (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
MVV +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.38
First team to score
De Graafschap to score first
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT De Graafschap / FT De Graafschap✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.01
–
Recent results
MVV – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
De Graafschap – last 2
WW
20 Feb
vs Jong Utrecht
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Jong PSV U21
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and De Graafschap.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win MVV vs De Graafschap?
On our numbers MVV have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and De Graafschap 51%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs De Graafschap?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–1 De Graafschap, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV vs De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag1
Willem II3
Cambuur2