Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal Prediction & Expected Goals (17 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultRayo Vallecano to win ✓38% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.07

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal in the La Liga, played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. In the table, Rayo Vallecano are 14th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Villarreal are 8th (upper half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Rayo Vallecano, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Valencia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Villarreal, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Sevilla, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Rayo Vallecano, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Villarreal.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Rayo Vallecano 1.4 xG, Villarreal 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Rayo Vallecano 38%, draw 24%, Villarreal 37%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Villarreal to win @2.84 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Rayo Vallecano38%fair 2.62 · @2.30

Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.55

Villarreal37%fair 2.68 · @2.84

2.81Expected goals

1.39Rayo Vallecano xG

1.42Villarreal xG

59%Both score

54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–19%

1–28%

1–08%

2–18%

0–26%

From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.4 – 1.4 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Rayo Vallecano to win ✓	38%	2.62	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	59%	1.69	1.57
Draw no bet	Rayo Vallecano (draw no bet) ✓	51%	1.98	–
Asian handicap	Rayo Vallecano +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.84	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	83%	1.21	1.17
First team to score	Villarreal to score first ✗	47%	2.11	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	41%	2.42	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal ✗	22%	4.53	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.07	–

Rayo Vallecano – last 6

DDWWDW

14 May	@ Valencia	1–1	D
11 May	vs Girona	1–1	D
7 May	@ Strasbourg	1–0	W
30 Apr	vs Strasbourg	1–0	W
26 Apr	vs Real Sociedad	3–3	D
23 Apr	vs Espanyol	1–0	W

1.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Villarreal – last 6

LDDLWD

13 May	vs Sevilla	2–3	L
10 May	@ Mallorca	1–1	D
23 Apr	@ Oviedo	1–1	D
6 Apr	@ Girona	0–1	L
20 Mar	vs Real Sociedad	3–1	W
13 Mar	@ Alaves	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5

Team

Pts

+35

+21

+13

-2

-13

-2

-1

-6

-10

-11

-5

-6

-12

-14

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarreal 37%.

How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal: numbers & prediction