Value bet: Real Madrid to win @ 2.18 – our chance 52% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓52% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Sevilla vs Real Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sevilla welcome Real Madrid to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán for a La Liga fixture on Sunday 17 May (18:00 WAT). In the table, Sevilla are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 12 matches; Real Madrid are 2nd (among the top four) with 30. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sevilla, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Villarreal, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Real Madrid, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Oviedo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Real Madrid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Sevilla.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sevilla 1.1 xG, Real Madrid 1.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sevilla 25%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 52%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Real Madrid to win @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sevilla 1–1 Real Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sevilla25%fair 4.01 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.45
Real Madrid52%fair 1.93 · @2.18
2.91Expected goals
1.06Sevilla xG
1.85Real Madrid xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.1 – 1.9 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
52%
1.93
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
1.57
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Sevilla +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
Sevilla – last 6
WWLLLD
13 May
@ Villarreal
3–2
W
4 May
vs Real Sociedad
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ Levante
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Oviedo
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Barcelona
2–5
L
8 Mar
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WWLDLW
14 May
vs Oviedo
2–0
W
21 Apr
vs Alaves
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Bayern München
3–4
L
10 Apr
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 52%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Sevilla vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona0
Mallorca0
Oviedo0