Empoli v Avellino Prediction & Expected Goals (1 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultEmpoli to win ✓39% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.15

Empoli vs Avellino: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Friday 1 May: Empoli v Avellino in the Serie B, played at Stadio Carlo Castellani. In the table, Empoli are 19th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 11 matches; Avellino are 5th (upper half) with 16.

Current form

Empoli, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sampdoria, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Avellino, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Palermo, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Empoli 1.3 xG, Avellino 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Empoli 39%, draw 26%, Avellino 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Avellino to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Empoli 1–1 Avellino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Empoli39%fair 2.55 · @2.20

Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.20

Avellino35%fair 2.88 · @3.25

2.65Expected goals

1.33Empoli xG

1.33Avellino xG

57%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–09%

0–19%

2–18%

1–28%

0–07%

From our goals model: Empoli 1.3 – 1.3 Avellino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Empoli to win ✓	39%	2.55	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.35	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	57%	1.75	1.80
Draw no bet	Empoli (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	Avellino +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	71%	1.40	1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	53%	1.89	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	1.08
First team to score	Empoli to score first ✓	47%	2.15	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.34	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Empoli / FT Empoli ✗	21%	4.68	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.15	–

Empoli – last 6

LWDLLD

6 Apr	@ Sampdoria	0–1	L
22 Mar	vs Pescara	4–2	W
17 Mar	@ Spezia	1–1	D
8 Mar	@ Catanzaro	2–3	L
4 Mar	@ Bari	1–2	L
20 Feb	@ Frosinone	2–2	D

1.7Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Avellino – last 6

LLWWLD

5 Apr	@ Palermo	0–2	L
22 Mar	@ Sampdoria	1–2	L
18 Mar	vs Sudtirol	3–2	W
15 Mar	@ Virtus Entella	2–1	W
3 Mar	@ Venezia	0–4	L
22 Feb	@ Reggiana	1–1	D

1.2Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19
5	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16
6	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15
12	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	12
14	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11
15	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	Vicenza Virtus	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Team

Pts

+12

+10

+10

-1

-2

-11

-7

-3

-5

-10

-7

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Empoli vs Avellino?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Empoli vs Avellino?

On our numbers Empoli have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Avellino 35%.

How many goals will there be in Empoli vs Avellino?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Avellino?

Our predicted score is Empoli 1–1 Avellino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Empoli vs Avellino?

Empoli vs Avellino (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Carlo Castellani.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Empoli v Avellino: numbers & prediction